Will a gene editing therapy receive approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023?
resolved Nov 16

This question resolves to "Yes" if any (DNA) gene editing (including but not limited to CRISPR-based, prime editing, base editing) therapy receives (full) approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023. The idea for this question was sparked by this article (https://www.fastcompany.com/90762983/gene-editing-drugs-are-coming).

It will resolve positively if *any* editing therapy receives approval by the end of 2023. However, note that non-editing viral or other gene therapies don't count since there's another question (https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/how-many-approved-therapies-will-th) focused on that.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I bet "No". Based on the analysis of the duration between the submission date and approval date of 35 products that were approved from 2021 to 2023 as biologics license applications (BLAs) from the FDA (US Food and Drug Administration), the probability that this therapy will be approved by the end of 2023 is 36.3%. In light of the fact that the rate is below 50%, it was determined that this treatment is unlikely to be approved by the end of the year.

The duration if approved in 12/31/2023: 272 days

Average approval duration : 486 days

σ : 402 days

Z score : -0.53

Probability of approval : 36.3% (Based on z-table)


Retrieved by 10/14/2023, 2021 Biological License Application Approvals, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/2021-biological-license-application-approvals

Retrieved by 10/14/2023, 2022 Biological License Application Approvals, U.S. Food & Drug Administration,


Retrieved by 10/14/2023, 2023 Biological License Application Approvals, U.S. Food & Drug Administration,


Folks betting NO, looks like @Ashvin seems to know what's up, if I'm reading correctly.


The FDA has granted Priority Review for SCD with a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target action date of December 8, 2023

bought Ṁ25 of NO

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

Based on my latest knowledge from September 2021, gene editing therapies such as CRISPR-based and other novel techniques have been making significant progress in preclinical and clinical trials. Many of these gene editing therapies show promising results with the ability to modify DNA sequences in targeted ways to treat genetic diseases and other conditions.

However, the market probability of 40.6% for a DNA gene editing therapy receiving full approval by the end of 2023 in the U.S. or the U.K. should be approached with some reservations. Regulatory processes can take a considerable amount of time, and given the complexity and novelty of gene editing therapies, the approval process might be more stringent than traditional therapeutics.

Clinical trials may face challenges, including unforeseen side-effects or low efficacy that could delay or limit approvals. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in the U.K. may take a cautious approach towards these gene-editing therapies, given the potentially irreversible nature of DNA alterations and their long-term consequences.

That said, it's still possible that at least one gene editing therapy may advance rapidly through the pipeline and receive approval by the end of 2023, especially if it addresses a significant unmet need with minimal risks.

Given the current probability of 40.6% and the considerable uncertainty, I find this probability slightly optimistic but not considerably far off from a fair assessment of the situation. As such, I would place a modest bet expressing some disagreement with the current market view.


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