Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Marjorie Taylor Greene, a member of the Republican Party, becomes the Democratic Party's presidential nominee for the 2028 election. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic National Committee records and major news sources confirming her nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention. The market resolves NO if any other candidate is nominated or if Green does not receive the Democratic nomination.

Background

Greene was elected to Congress in 2020 and was reelected in 2022 and 2024. Despite her frustrations with GOP leadership, Greene insists she won't leave the Republican fold. However, recent developments show significant tension: Trump announced he was revoking his endorsement of Greene, calling the 51-year-old lawmaker "wacky" and a "ranting lunatic". Greene has increasingly been expressing disagreements with the Trump administration, accusing it of prioritizing foreign policy over domestic issues, and has been particularly critical of US military support for Israel's war on Gaza.

Considerations

For this outcome to occur, Green would need to switch parties from Republican to Democratic and then win the Democratic primary—an unprecedented scenario in modern U.S. politics. Notable individuals who have expressed interest in running for the Democratic presidential nomination include Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, and former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, among many others actively positioning themselves for 2028.