Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who officially finishes in second place in the Toronto mayoral election scheduled for October 26, 2026.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official certified results declared by the City of Toronto Clerk, which will be published on the City of Toronto Elections page.

• Definition of Second Place: The candidate who receives the second-highest number of valid votes cast, as officially certified by the city clerk.

• Recounts and Challenges: In the event of an official recount or legal challenge, the market will resolve based on the final, certified results.

• Postponement: If the election is postponed beyond December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.

• Other Option: If a candidate who is not explicitly listed in the market answers finishes in second place, the "Other" option will resolve to YES, while all named options resolve to NO.

Background

The Toronto mayoral election is scheduled for Monday, October 26, 2026, alongside municipal council elections. Nominations officially closed on August 21, 2026, with 53 registered candidates for mayor.

Incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow, who first took office after winning a 2023 by-election, is running for a full term. Other prominent contenders in the race include city councillor Brad Bradford and former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander, who joined the race in late July 2026.

Polling from August 2026 (such as surveys by Pallas Data and Liaison Strategies) indicates Olivia Chow leading the field, with Brad Bradford as her primary challenger in second place, followed by Chris Alexander in third.

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