Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Pope Leo XIV publicly criticizes JD Vance by name before the 2028 election. Resolution requires a direct, named reference to Vance in a papal statement, homily, letter, or official Vatican communication. The criticism must occur before November 5, 2028. Resolution sources include official Vatican statements at https://www.vatican.va, papal homilies, and major news outlets reporting on papal statements.

Background

Pope Leo XIV (born Robert Francis Prevost) is the first pope to have been born in the United States, elected in May 2025. JD Vance has served as the 50th vice president of the United States since January 20, 2025.

One of Pope Francis' final encounters before his death was with U.S. Vice President JD Vance. The meeting came after the two shared disagreements over the Trump administration's deportation plans, with discussion of migrants and refugees. Pope Francis directly responded to Vice President JD Vance's effort to use Catholic theology to justify the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, though this occurred under the previous papacy.

Considerations

Pope Leo XIV has expressed support for COVID-19 vaccination and has supported various gun control measures, suggesting alignment with progressive social positions. However, Leo XIV has dismissed any immediate prospect of change in the Vatican's stance on LGBT+ rights, indicating he is not uniformly progressive. The question hinges on whether Leo XIV will adopt the confrontational approach his predecessor took toward Vance on immigration policy, or maintain a different diplomatic posture.

[Creator note: "criticize" is a bit of a judgment call, so I won't bet on this market]

This description was generated by AI.