Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Mark Carney is listed as Prime Minister of Canada on the official Prime Minister of Canada website (pm.gc.ca) on July 1st, 2026. The market resolves NO if any other individual holds the office of Prime Minister on that date. Resolution will be determined by checking the official government source on or shortly after July 1st, 2026.

Background

Mark Carney has served as the 24th Prime Minister of Canada since 2025 and is leader of the Liberal Party. Carney won the Liberal Party leadership election with over 85% of the first-preference vote and a majority in all 343 ridings. In the April 2025 federal election, the Liberal Party secured almost 44% of votes cast and 169 seats in the House of Commons, forming a minority government. As of late January 2026, Carney's approval rating stood at 60 percent, his highest since taking over the Liberal leadership in March 2025.

Considerations

Carney leads a minority government reliant on maintaining internal discipline and the support of other parties, with either the Bloc Québécois (22 seats) or the NDP (7 seats) able to provide enough support to pass legislation. A loss of confidence in Parliament or a successful no-confidence vote could force an election or government change before July 1st, 2026.

This description was generated by AI.