Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2026
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2026
36%
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This will resolve based on mainstream media reports. Any kind of dementia counts. Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.

I do not bet on my markets.

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What mainstream media exactly? Would Fox News count?

@Dynd Opinions on Fox News (or any other outlet) would not count, but if they had evidence that was credible, that would. To control for politically motivated claims, I would like to see evidence corroborated by other news sources, including ones that are generally more liberal (for Biden) or more conservative (for Trump).

@Steelbiceps where does the Hur report fall? Would interview transcripts count?

@MickBransfield Interesting question, but I don't think that counts. I am looking for either evidence that Biden (or Trump in the parallel markets) meets clinical criteria, or that there is broad media consensus that he would. Evidence that he has failed a mental status exam for dementia or is being treated for dementia, if presented in the Hur report, would count. A lawyer/ prosecutor/ investigator saying he has memory problems is to vague.

@Steelbiceps Gotcha. Would any memory enhancing drug count? Or would something like Memantine (prescription pill for Alzheimer's) count?

@MickBransfield Yes, if it became known he was taking memantine, that would definitely count.