This will resolve based on mainstream media reports. Any kind of dementia counts. Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
I do not bet on my markets.
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@Dynd Opinions on Fox News (or any other outlet) would not count, but if they had evidence that was credible, that would. To control for politically motivated claims, I would like to see evidence corroborated by other news sources, including ones that are generally more liberal (for Biden) or more conservative (for Trump).
@MickBransfield Interesting question, but I don't think that counts. I am looking for either evidence that Biden (or Trump in the parallel markets) meets clinical criteria, or that there is broad media consensus that he would. Evidence that he has failed a mental status exam for dementia or is being treated for dementia, if presented in the Hur report, would count. A lawyer/ prosecutor/ investigator saying he has memory problems is to vague.
@Steelbiceps Gotcha. Would any memory enhancing drug count? Or would something like Memantine (prescription pill for Alzheimer's) count?