Is Anthropic Over? (will they no longer publish a top 3 model anymore?)

MANIFOLD

Ṁ290Ṁ301

resolved Feb 2

Resolved

N/A

ALL

I have not heard from Anthropic/Claude for so long... What are they doing?

This market aims to create a rule to determine if Anthropic lost its innovation and dominance over the market.

If Anthropic publish a top 3 model in one of the below area before EOY2026, then resolve to NO:

LLM
Vision language model
Video Understanding
Video Generation
Voice understanding AND generation
Autopilot self-driving
Robotics

Otherwise, resolve to YES.

If the model is just a ML stat model, then it will compare to other stat models. (GPT4 vs Mistral)

If the model is more than just a ML stat model, but a whole system that independently makes decisions, e.g. using agents framework, then it will be compared to other integrated systems. (ChatGPT 4 + code-interpreter+search vs Google bard (gemini pro))

Market context

Anthropic

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Sorry for the confusion, I created a new one

https://manifold.markets/Sss19971997/is-anthropic-over-will-they-no-long

predictedYES

@Sss19971997 It's all good and part of the manifold community project, getting better at letting people build prediction market questions.

Guys How can I compensate yalll?

@Sss19971997 Resolve N/A and reopen a new market.

The title and resolution criteria in the description are flipped. I bet based on the resolution criteria.

@EricGan Yes, they are flipped

@EricGan This is better, right?

@Sss19971997 maybe your change didn't propagate yet but it still reads as flipped for me

@singer Is Anthropic Over? (will they not publish a top 3 model in some area anymore?)

How is this?

@Sss19971997 That still seems flipped to me. I think you should change the resolution criteria to "If Anthropic publishes a top 3 model ... resolves to NO"

Agreed.

Currently "Is anthropic over, will they not publish a top 3 model" resolves (according to the resolution criteria) to yes if they publish a top 3 model. Should resolve no, because if they publish a top 3 model they will not have not done so 😏

Trying again: if they don't publish a top 3 model --> YES (resolution) they are over.

If they do publish a top 3 model --> NO, they are not over.