Best Open Weight LLM by EOY 2025 (by company/organization)
Best Open Weight LLM by EOY 2025 (by company/organization)
29
1kṀ16532026
2%
Mistral
47%
Deepseek
14%
Meta
0.4%
Yi
0.9%
ModelBest
19%
Qwen
17%
The top 1, 2, 3 resolve to 50-30-20
Resolution will be based on LMSYS Arena Leaderboard. If it stop to exist, then I will choose some other benchmarks
For example, 2023 EOY would resolve to Mistral-50, Yi-30, Meta-20
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ500 YES6mo
DeepSeek is not something to look down on
They already have a o1 equivilalent, and are fully self-funded + profitable
I am telling yall, dont underestimate Deepseek. They already figured out how to do MoE
Also, Mistral is probably not gonna open weights their better models anymore, so Mixtral 8x7b-Small is the best we will get
It is not sure Llama 3 will be open source either
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?
29% chance
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
58% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Which company's model will capture the largest share of the enterprise LLM market by EOY 2025?
Best Video Generation Model (by company/organization) EOY 2026
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
79% chance
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?
What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊
Thinking Machines releases an LLM by EOY 2025?
36% chance
In December 2025, a model by which company will be the most used on OpenRouter LLM Rankings?