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MANIFOLD
Will Grokipedia surpass Wikipedia in Google Trends within 48 hours of launch?
22
Ṁ100Ṁ1.3k
resolved Oct 30
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES if Grokipedia's Google Trends interest score exceeds Wikipedia's interest score at any point during the 48-hour period following Grokipedia's official public release.

I will use this link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=Wikipedia,Grokipedia. I'm using search terms instead of topics because there isn't a topic for Grokipedia yet.

For reference, Grok gets about 30% of Wikipedia queries, and ChatGPT gets an order of magnitude more, so it seems possible if Grokipedia makes a large enough splash at the release.

Resolution criteria:

  • The market resolves YES if, 48 hours after the public release of Grokipedia, the CSV export of the "Interest over time" chart has a row in the time span [release time, release time + 48 hours] with the number for "Grokipedia" larger than the number for "Wikipedia", and NO otherwise.

  • If Grokipedia isn't released before December 31, 2025 or has a limited-access release (e.g. private beta, recursive invites like Sora, waiting list, etc.), the market resolves N/A

  • Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve after 1:29 AM on Oct 30, 2025 UTC (48 hours after Grokipedia's launch as indicated by this tweet).

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24h more to resolve?

@strutheo Yeah, I'll resolve after 1:29 AM on Oct 30, 2025 UTC as per this tweet: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1982983035906842651

Doesn't look even close so far though, even the peak U.S. value has been 2% lower than Wikipedia.

I think Grokipedia will be interesting as a project for a niche of people but the majority will not care and there is a certain time for momentum to catch up. Also Kpop demon hunters would fail this test and it is popular vs niche