Will Grokipedia surpass Wikipedia in Google Trends within 48 hours of launch?
13
100Ṁ231
Dec 31
22%
chance

This market resolves YES if Grokipedia's Google Trends interest score exceeds Wikipedia's interest score at any point during the 48-hour period following Grokipedia's official public release.

I will use this link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=Wikipedia,Grokipedia. I'm using search terms instead of topics because there isn't a topic for Grokipedia yet.

For reference, Grok gets about 30% of Wikipedia queries, and ChatGPT gets an order of magnitude more, so it seems possible if Grokipedia makes a large enough splash at the release.

Resolution criteria:

  • The market resolves YES if, 48 hours after the public release of Grokipedia, the CSV export of the "Interest over time" chart has a row in the time span [release time, release time + 48 hours] with the number for "Grokipedia" larger than the number for "Wikipedia", and NO otherwise.

  • If Grokipedia isn't released before December 31, 2025 or has a limited-access release (e.g. private beta, recursive invites like Sora, waiting list, etc.), the market resolves N/A

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I think Grokipedia will be interesting as a project for a niche of people but the majority will not care and there is a certain time for momentum to catch up. Also Kpop demon hunters would fail this test and it is popular vs niche

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