Will India go to war by 2025?
14
127
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2025
12%
chance

Resolves YES if India is directly involved in a military conflict in which there are over 1,000 total casualties. Resolves NO otherwise on 1/1/2025.

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predicts NO

Do all those weird melee bouts they're having with China count? If you're using the typical military definition of casualty (i.e. including non-combat-effective wounded) I would think they'd probably make the grade.

predicts NO

@AndrewHartman They certainly count as military combat but have not been anywhere close to a war definition of 1,000 casualties.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2021_China–India_skirmishes

@SpeaksForTrees I was under the impression they were still skirmishing, tbh. I'll see if I can find some sources to corroborate that impression.

predicts NO

@AndrewHartman No, as far as I know the most recent clash was December 2022. In fact, last month it was reported that the pair held productive border talks reaffirming peace.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-india-hold-military-chief-level-talks-border-issues-2023-10-12/