Will India be the superpower till 2035?
6
62
130
2035
20%
chance

Resolve YES if India is the first in the 2035 version of this list https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries
Resolve NO if below 3rd
N/A otherwise

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@AmitKumarMishra Resolution criteria? What does the "till" actually mean?

@JaromirSvoboda powerful military, huge economy, and leading role in international institutions as a developed country. I guess these things would be clearly visible when done. I am new to markets I hope there isn't any confusion.

@AmitKumarMishra Unfortunately, that's not precise enough. Arguably India is a superpower even now (see https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-superpowers) or it is not (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower).

IMHO the best approach would be to link some list of countries (wiki or something like this https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/military-capability/) that takes into account all your criteria and let the resolution criteria be for example: "India is the third or higher on this list".

predicts YES

@JaromirSvoboda By "the superpower" I meant it to be at the top.

Economically as a nation it's certainly quite higher but I guess things matter more on a nominal or per capita basis.

@AmitKumarMishra Still not clear enough for my taste, please include one precise criterion t in the description. For example "India is the first in the 2035 version of this list https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries"

It is generally discouraged to bet on your own markets, it makes you biased. If you still do it, you need to be even more rigorous in setting the resolution criteria.

sold Ṁ25 of YES

@JaromirSvoboda Acknowledged

@AmitKumarMishra Nice. And sorry to bet against you 😁.