How many faithless electors will there be in the 2024 US Presidential election?
Plus
30
Ṁ6506resolved Dec 18
100%98.3%
0
0.4%
1
0.4%
2-3
0.4%
4-6
0.2%
7-10
0.2%
11+
An elector will count as faithless if they cast their vote in a way other than matching the results of the election in their state, unless one or both of the candidates chosen in the election in their state is no longer participating in the race.
"No longer participating" includes death, resignation, concession, acknowledging a replacement candidate for their party, being declared ineligible for the position by a federal court, and substantially similar scenarios.
"The election in their state" refers to the results of the whole state, or the portion of the state the elector represents in states using that system.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will faithless electors change a US Presidential election outcome in the 21st century?
37% chance
Will more than 25% of US Adults believe the 2024 Election was illegitimate in February 2025?
4% chance
Will there have been a new president who isn't a Protestant or non denominational Christian by Inauguration Day 2045?
69% chance
Will more than 200 people vote for the candidate who receives the fewest votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
47% chance
Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?
91% chance
Will there be an Electoral College tie by 2049?
20% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential election win with 300 or more electors?
96% chance
How many openly non-believing people will be elected to the US House or Senate in 2024?