Free Access Conditions: The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like "GPT-4-lite" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users before April of 2024 under any of these conditions:
Permanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)
Limited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive)
Access through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.
Exclusion Criteria
Trials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.
Access to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.
Edge Cases
If a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in March and ends in April, this would count towards resolving the market to Yes.
If OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.
1,000
3.00ignore (incorrect referral)
This market suffers from the same issue as the one for all of 2024: if temporary free trials count, this has a decent chance (though the timeframe is short, so maybe ~20%?). If GPT-4 being permanently free is required, the chance of this is <1%. So it's impossible to make a forecast here unless that's clarified.
@pietrokc A temporary trial sounds fairly impossible to me unless it's done in small batches of users at different times. They wouldn't have the capacity. And they're not going to build capacity for something temporary.
@chrisjbillington Yes, agreed it would be challenging and would require all sorts of rationing. But again, this market does not rule out that kind of thing. Free trials are an extremely standard way to convert skeptics to paying users. (It's how I started paying for Playstation Plus!)