Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users in 2024?

508

3.1kṀ97k

resolved May 15

Resolved

YES

ALL

@Soli i think a weekend is too little but if it is a recurrent thing so multiple weekends then i would say it counts - if it is more than or equal to 4 weeks it should count - anything else would be too little and i would resolve 50%

@Soli I think it's pretty unlikely, but think 4 weeks sounds like more than enough to count, definitely wouldn't complain about that. You may wish to specify whether the four weeks need to be contiguous, and if so, whether it's the start of the 4 weeks or the end that needs to be in 2024. It should probably be the start, since otherwise the market effectively gets shortened by 4 weeks. Edit: sounds like you're going for not contiguous. In that case you'd have the odd corner case of GPT-4 becoming permanently free starting Dec 5th, and yet this market resolving NO. You might want to adjust things to avoid that strange outcome.

@chrisjbillington most paid apps allow users a trial period where they can test the product under the assumption they would stay - if someone has to enter a credit card to get these 4 weeks and is automatically charged once the trial is over then this would not count towards resolving this market as yes since in my eyes these are paid users who just got 1 month free of charge.

Free Access Conditions: The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like "GPT-4-lite" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users in 2024 under any of these conditions:

Permanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)
Limited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive).
Access through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.

Exclusion Criteria

Trials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.
Access to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.

Edge Cases

If a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in December and ends in January 2025, it counts towards resolving this market as yes.
If OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.

Technology

OpenAI

ChatGPT

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