When will the first fully open-source advanced LLM (data, code, weights) be released?
7
190Ṁ157
resolved Dec 17
Resolved
N/A
before 2026
Resolved
N/A
before 2025

will refine resolution criteria later and won’t bet on this market by advanced i mean something that is similar in quality to existing open-source model like llama 2 or mistral stuff

Technology
LLMs
Open Source
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

When will OpenAI release their next open-weight LLM model?
8/5/27
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
77% chance
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
20% chance
Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?
31% chance
When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?
Will researchers extract a novel program from the weights of an LLM into a Procedural/OO programming language by 2026?
27% chance
When will the weights of GPT-4 be publicly available (leaked or open sourced)?
When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?
How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
Sort by:

Getting pretty close to resolution for the before 2025 one without the criteria being clear. Does something like allenai/OLMoE-1B-7B-0924 which has a fully open training set and intermediate checkpoints count? I'd guess ~no, it's not good enough.

@Lun we should na this question

@mods can someone help pls?

.

@weissz interesting, is this also ranked on Chatbot Arena?

@weissz and apologies for the late reply, I somehow missed your comment

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 59% order

@Soli yea, why is not Olmo fully open-source?

  1. Context text embedder ≠ LLM.

  2. Mistral is open source. The training data isn't, but it's neither practical nor necessary to publish the whole dataset, considering that it's huge and likely has some copyrighted works in it.

  3. Really strange to open a market first and come up with resolution criteria later. Whatever you come up with will upset people who made their bets having to use their own assumptions.

@ProjectVictory i think you could have saved both of us time by not making this comment :)

People are also trading

When will OpenAI release their next open-weight LLM model?
8/5/27
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
77% chance
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
20% chance
Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?
31% chance
When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?
Will researchers extract a novel program from the weights of an LLM into a Procedural/OO programming language by 2026?
27% chance
When will the weights of GPT-4 be publicly available (leaked or open sourced)?
When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?
How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy