Tehran Water Crisis Prop Bets
6
1kṀ230Mar 31
66%
Will Tehran record less than 50mm of total rainfall from December 1st 2025 to March 31st 2026?
61%
Will the Iranian government officially announce daytime residential water rationing?
50%
Will the government announce plans to reduce agricultural water allocation?
43%
Will the government issue a mandatory evacuation order for any district of Tehran?
37%
Will the Iranian Parliament pass a bill to formally move the capital city from Tehran?
35%
Will the Iranian government import water (or sign an agreement to) from other countries to supply over 50% of Tehran?
28%
Will the government significantly raise residential water prices?
24%
Will the president or Supreme Leader publicly admit governmental mismanagement caused the crisis?
Context: https://www.csis.org/analysis/satellite-imagery-shows-tehrans-accelerating-water-crisis
Events that occur will resolve yes immediately. Any events that have not occurred by March 31st, 2026 will resolve No.
Questions will resolve according to official government statements, data from the World Meteorological Organization/other geological institutes, or reporting corroborated by multiple international news outlets.
A similar market (https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/tehran-2025-water-crisis) exists, but has a much narrower focus. I will not bet on this market beyond setting the initial lines.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000