Kickstarter Here:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/contentiongames/slay-the-spire-the-board-game/comments
Since the previous market seems to indicate we will pass $3 million:
If at the end of the Kickstarter campaign, the total pledged amount exceeds $4 million in USD this market resolves YES.
Otherwise this market resolves NO.
Previous Market:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ340 | |
| 2 | Ṁ208 | |
| 3 | Ṁ154 | |
| 4 | Ṁ107 | |
| 5 | Ṁ101 |
People are also trading
Also, can someone explain to me what on earth is going on here? The market had stabilized around 4% with 25+ traders, then a single person bought it up to 50% and now it's stabilized closer to 30%. Are people assuming @SneakySly has private information about the kickstarter, or is this the most dramatic prediction market failure I've ever seen?
@IsaacKing the single person being SneakySly is clearly relevant. It is entirely plausible for SneakySly to be better informed than the rest of us. Or, perhaps it's more of subsidizing the market. On discord he posted:
Only 18 hours left in the Kickstarter and I injected a bunch of YES into my market if you think I am too optimistic! (I probably am)
Also, I don't know the typical dynamics of kickstarters (I assume a last minute rush is common).
@jack A last minute rush should have been priced into the market. SneakySly might have known they planned to extend the Kickstarter end date (which is why I asked about that), but other than that, what private info might they have?
@IsaacKing I was pretty open about my bet being non-optimal. There were a couple reasons to make it, but was curious what would happen.
@IsaacKing If the end date changes this market extends the close date as appropriate. At the current moment afaik the date won't be extended.
