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MANIFOLD
Navier-Stokes Drama Prop Bets
9
Ṁ1.4kṀ2.8k
Oct 8
97%
OpenAI makes a statement by Friday
70%
OpenAI claims to have solved Navier-Stokes by the end of September
14%
Tristan Buckmaster deletes the original statement
74%
Sebastien Bubeck makes a statement by the end of Tuesday (not just his quick tweet)
33%
An apology is issued by Tristan Buckmaster
62%
Tristan Buckmaster publishes a follow-up statement by end of Friday
32%
The ultimate post claiming to have solved Navier-Stokes is joint (at least two of OpenAI, Buckmaster, Anthropic)
33%
Legal action is initiated by or against Tristan Buckmaster
33%
OpenAI admits to reading and using Buckmaster’s chat logs (not just incidentally training on them)
53%
OpenAI admits to using Buckmaster’s chat logs in some way

tristanbuckmaster (@tristanbuckmaster@mastodon.social)

https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf

tristanbuckmaster (@tristanbuckmaster@mastodon.social)
Today, Levent Alpöge and I have made public three results: finite-time blowup with smooth forcing for incompressible porous media, for Boussinesq, and for 3d incompressible Euler. https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/euler.pdf https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/ipm.pdf https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/boussinesq.pdf https://github.com/tristanbuckmaster/fluid_lean

Add anything that you think would be:

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

I'll resolve everything I can. But any mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities.

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boughtṀ1,051 YES

@Bayesian Was there a statement already?

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Dssc no but a claim at an upcoming statement, if u doubt im willing to bet on it

@Sketchy does it still count if he makes an apology for some specific/minor detail of his statement, rather than the whole thing?

bought Ṁ30 NO

@retr0id yes

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