Will Manifold Markets become open-source?
28
114Ṁ1386resolved Apr 29
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if the manifold team officially expresses their intent to publish Manifold Markets as open-source software.
It will resolve NO otherwise, including if no announcement or official statement has been made before the end of April. It may resolve to NO earlier, if there is an official statement that Manifold Markets will remain closed-source.
If only parts of the code are to be made open-source, this resolves YES for core parts like the market making implementation, and NO for tangential parts like generic user interface components.
The exact license does not matter. What matters is whether the public gets access to the code. That said, unintended access (eg, a developer's computer gets hacked) does not count. Also, code in some unreadable form (eg, minified JavaScript) dies not count.
An open development process (eg, a publicly accessible issue tracker) alone is not sufficient for YES. The public actually needs access to source code. Similarly, access through a closed "developer program" or beta-testing program does not count if code is not accessible to the public.
The actual publication date may be in the future. An expression of intent is enough for a YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Interesting, thanks @horse! My Google search did not bring up that market, but I guess I should have also used the internal search feature... I guess this present market is complementary enough to leave it open, and hope that it contributes to a good discussion.
Austin's comment in this market: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-open-source-our-frontend-code make it seem unlikely that there'll be an official statement in the short-term.
I think the open-source model would work well for Manifold Markets. Among its users are many tech-savvy people who might contribute to the development, and so Manifold could evolve at a faster pace.
Being open source would also increase trust in the platform, since there is more transparency and users could verify that their Mana is traded according to the right rules.
I also believe that most of Manifold Market's value is in the platform itself (the domain, having the users and their trust, ...) rather than in intellectual property. Thus the cost of open-sourcing is low.
Probably the biggest cost would come from changes to the development process. Core team members would likely do more community management, code reviews etc., and less own development. This might be undesired depending on the team's preference.
Personally, I would like Manifold Markets even more if it were open-source.