MANIFOLD
Will a civilian in Moscow be injured from an Ukranian offensive?
30
Ṁ590Ṁ2k
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
YES

Context: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66352765

I think this market is important because:

  1. It gives anyone living in Moscow who may be terrified right now a bit more certainty.

  2. If Ukraine is just intending to intimidate and send a message but not harm anyone, having some understanding of if they are likely to harm someone is important.

To be clear this resolves yes if any major news outlet reports something along the lines of "2 civilians sustained minor injuries" etc.

This market refers to the current ongoing conflict and will only close once there is a ceasefire that is intended to last one month (may not wait the month before resolving the market though).

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TASS reports that one person was injured due to the recent drone attack, should this then resolve to YES? https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18405707

predictedYES

Link to the English version of the article: https://tass.com/emergencies/1654287

predictedYES

CNBC also reported this, it should definitely be resolved: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/30/ukraine-drones-hit-moscow-1-injured-flights-suspendedrussias-tass.html

Will you resolve the market early once somebody gets injured by a strike?

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