If Manifold improves "stock"-type markets, will we have 2000 engaged users in 2023?
If Manifold improves "stock"-type markets, will we have 2000 engaged users in 2023?
19
350Ṁ2298resolved Jan 26
Resolved
NO1H
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ALL
This resolves N/A if we don't invest time to make them better.
Examples of investing time to making them better:
-Create a new mechanism
-Improve their UI (has to be significant. Eg. if we decide to change the word from short to sell that wouldn't be enough)
If time isn't invested in improving them during 2023, then it will resolve YES/NO depending on the number of engaged users which can be found here: https://manifold.markets/stats
You can bet on the alternative conditional markets here:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.