If Manifold makes no changes to "stock"-type markets, will we have 2000 engaged users in 2023?
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resolved Jan 26
Resolved
N/A

This resolves N/A if we devalue stocks or invest time to make them better.
Examples of devaluing the "stock" type of market would include:
-Removing them
-Actively starting to unlist them
-Further actions taken to make them less surfaced (general changes to how the algorithm works, even if it results in stocks being slightly less visible don't count. Would have to be an action that's a result of a conscious decision to make stocks less visible because we think they are bad).


Examples of investing time to making them better:
-Create a new mechanism
-Improve their UI (has to be significant. Eg. if we decide to change the word from short to sell that wouldn't be enough)

If no changes are made to them during 2023, then it will resolve YES/NO depending on the number of engaged users which can be found here: https://manifold.markets/stats

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bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

@SirSalty if the UI changes that were implemented are sufficient for the following:

-Improve their UI (has to be significant. Eg. if we decide to change the word from short to sell that wouldn't be enough)

Could you go ahead and resolve N/A?

predicted NO

@SirSalty resolution please

predicted NO

@DavidChee does the new pricing formula mean this resolves n/a?

predicted NO

@MartinRandall weren't there changes tho

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING there were changes, so "if no changes" is false, so n/a

predicted NO

@MartinRandall oh im sorry, i didnt realize the resolving critieria there. the graphs had me skipping that part. that's fair