⚖️ Which Event Will Occur First? US Government Shutdown OR Sweden Officially Ratified As A NATO Member?
⚖️ Which Event Will Occur First? US Government Shutdown OR Sweden Officially Ratified As A NATO Member?
26
550Ṁ2669resolved Mar 7
1H
6H
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0.6%
US Government Shutdown
100%99.4%
Sweden Ratified As NATO Member.
As Clearly Stated In The Question.
Resolves To Whichever Occurs First.
Market Will Extend Another Month On The Last Day Of Every Month Until One Of The Options Occur. This Means This Market Can Extend Indefinitely.
CLARIFICATION SECTION: 01/10/2023 2pm ET - A Partial Shutdown Would Count
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
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bought Ṁ169 Sweden Ratified As N... YES1y
It happened
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_223446.htm?selectedLocale=en
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1765780494346527096
Senate passes bill to extend government shutdown deadlines to March
Story by Jacob Bogage, Marianna Sotomayor (The Washington Post)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.