Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that secures the highest percentage result in the Portuguese general election scheduled for May 18, 2025. Official results will be sourced from the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) and reputable news outlets.

Background

The 2025 Portuguese general election is set for May 18, following the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's minority center-right government in March 2025. The leading contenders include:

• Aliança Democrática (AD): A center-right coalition led by Luís Montenegro, comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS-PP).

• Partido Socialista (PS): A center-left party led by Pedro Nuno Santos, aiming to regain power after losing the majority in 2024.

• Chega (CH): A far-right party led by André Ventura, known for its anti-immigration stance.

Recent polls indicate a tight race, with AD leading at approximately 32%, PS at about 26%, and CH around 18%. (reuters.com)

Considerations

Given the close polling figures, no party is projected to achieve an outright majority, potentially leading to coalition negotiations post-election. Voter fatigue from multiple elections in recent years may also influence turnout and results.