Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the party or coalition that forms the government after Portugal's parliamentary elections on May 18, 2025. If a coalition government is formed, the market will resolve to the coalition option if available, or to the party that leads the coalition (typically the one with the most seats or that provides the Prime Minister).

If no government is formed and new elections are called, this market will resolve N/A.

Background

Portugal will hold parliamentary elections on May 18, 2025, following political instability that led to the dissolution of parliament. The current government, led by Luís Montenegro's Aliança Democrática (AD), lost a confidence vote, prompting these early elections.

In Portugal's parliamentary system, a party needs to secure a majority of seats (116 out of 230) to form a government independently. Without a majority, parties must form coalitions or agreements to govern.