How many Manifold team members in the Bahamas will test positive for COVID?
I have just tested positive for covid. The plan is for the rest of the team to get take-home antigen tests within the next few days. (If we don't all test, this resolves N/A) Details: - There are currently 6 Manifolk in the Bahamas, including me. If other Manifolk fly in or get hired, I won't count them for this question. - Timeline: Fri: test negative, then go to Vibegala (~100 people?); Sat: fly to Bahamas, get dinner w/ 3 Manifolk; Mon: no symptoms, go into FTX office; Tues (today): have cough and light headache, noticed after going to the FTX office. - Ian and Daniel landed Mon afternoon - I'm triple vaxxed. Austin is triple vaxxed + he's had Covid more than a year ago
Get better soon! My way of modeling this is to use https://www.microcovid.org/ to try to model past interactions, setting the risk profile of nearby people higher to account for the known positives. Baseline (3x vaxxed, no other precautions), the chance of getting covid from someone covid-positive is roughly 4% per hour of indoors close contact (<6 ft apart).