How many Manifold team members in the Bahamas will test positive for COVID?
Resolved
May 16
M$823 bet
I have just tested positive for covid. The plan is for the rest of the team to get take-home antigen tests within the next few days. (If we don't all test, this resolves N/A) Details: - There are currently 6 Manifolk in the Bahamas, including me. If other Manifolk fly in or get hired, I won't count them for this question. - Timeline: Fri: test negative, then go to Vibegala (~100 people?); Sat: fly to Bahamas, get dinner w/ 3 Manifolk; Mon: no symptoms, go into FTX office; Tues (today): have cough and light headache, noticed after going to the FTX office. - Ian and Daniel landed Mon afternoon - I'm triple vaxxed. Austin is triple vaxxed + he's had Covid more than a year ago
Chosen
24%
Sinclair
Sinclair Chen answered
1
30%
Sinclair
Sinclair Chen answered
3
16%
Sinclair
Sinclair Chen answered
4
11%
Sinclair
Sinclair Chen answered
5
3%
Sinclair
Sinclair Chen answered
6
1.8%
Sinclair
1
30%
noumena

Rachel Shu is betting 2 13 days ago

@Sinclair ... huh. this is a failure of market noticeability, or something. everyone should have sold as soon as we found out austin was sick.
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen is betting 1 13 days ago

@noumena it was after this market closed. I notice I didn't put in a resolve date - when we all leave the bahamas this weekend i guess
Sinclair
2
24%
Sinclair
3
16%
Sinclair
4
11%
Sinclair
5
3%
Sinclair
6
1.8%
General Comments
jack

Jack 21 days ago

Get better soon! My way of modeling this is to use https://www.microcovid.org/ to try to model past interactions, setting the risk profile of nearby people higher to account for the known positives. Baseline (3x vaxxed, no other precautions), the chance of getting covid from someone covid-positive is roughly 4% per hour of indoors close contact (<6 ft apart).
Austin

Austin 21 days ago

Actually this could have been structured like the "pushed into a pool" market, where the market tries to predict exactly which members caught covid. Also feeling my throat itch...
DavidChee

SirSalty 21 days ago

WHAT U GOT COVID??? Uh oh I'm double vaxxed (didnt get the 3rd jab bc of how bad the side effects were for me personally). Dont think I've had covid yet but not completely sure... starting to feel an itch in my throat monkaS