Will whales make these markets unfair?
15
100Ṁ1023resolved Jun 21
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolved
50%This will be unfair
Resolved
50%This will totally be unfair
Resolved
50%This will be really unfair
This market resolves on a random/unknown day in June 2025 (I have already secretly decided which day).
Each option resolves as their percentage on the closing moment.
I'm doing this to test whether it's possible to make self resolving markets that are fair by choosing random closing dates. My assumptions will be proved true if:
The percentage of each option will be similar
There won't be much volatility in the market
Volatility will decrease with time (instead than increasing)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ205 | |
2 | Ṁ14 | |
3 | Ṁ7 | |
4 | Ṁ7 | |
5 | Ṁ0 |