Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Manifold Markets officially implements a policy or platform-level change that bans, systematically disables, or completely removes unique trader bonuses for low-effort "slop" or "bonus-farming" markets.

To resolve YES, the action must satisfy at least one of the following criteria:

1. Official Guidelines Ban: Manifold updates its Community Guidelines or Terms of Service to explicitly ban the creation of markets intended solely to farm unique trader bonuses (e.g., self-referential markets such as "Will this market get X traders?").

2. Systemic Bonus Removal: Manifold implements a platform-wide change that entirely eliminates unique trader bonuses for all user-created markets.

3. Automated Non-Predictive Classification: Manifold deploys an automated system or aggressive moderator policy that systematically categorizes these low-effort markets as "non-predictive" or otherwise bars them from receiving unique trader bonuses by default.

This market will resolve to NO if, by the cutoff date, no such official ban, systemic removal of the bonus, or automated moderation policy targeting these markets has been implemented, and users are still able to create and receive unique trader bonuses on these self-referential/low-effort markets without systematic intervention.

Background

On Manifold Markets, creators receive a "unique trader bonus" (paid in Mana) when distinct users trade on their markets. This incentive has led some users to create low-effort, self-referential markets (often dubbed "slop" or "bonus-farming" markets) solely to extract Mana from the platform. While Manifold has previously introduced a "non-predictive" category that strips these markets of league qualification and unique trader bonuses, debates persist over whether the platform will implement stricter bans to clear "slop" from the active feed entirely.

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