Is Gary Markus smarter than GPT-5? | Manifold

Is Gary Markus smarter than GPT-5?

14

1kṀ852

Sep 23

73%

chance

1H

6H

1D

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1M

ALL

I will make a poll asking Manifold users:

"Who is smarter , GPT-5 or Gary Markus? Consider whatever definition of smartness that you wish."

This market resolves according to the outcome of that poll.

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Related questions

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 exceed 70% on WebArena?

Is GPT-5 a mixture of experts?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Will Mistral-Large be considered on par or better than GPT-5? (text)

Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

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