Bets on fusion: which ones will be true by 2037?
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11
Ṁ9422038
1D
1W
1M
ALL
40%
Fusion energy will be achieved
15%
If achieved, it will cost <2¢/kWh
9%
If achieved, it will be the cheapest energy source
I loved this comment by @pyrylium in my market on the timeline for nuclear fusion reactors:
https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor?tab=comments#4vi261mb80j
He was scheptical about nuclear fusion not from an engineering perspective but from an economical perspective. I thought his comment made a lot of interesting points to bet on.
Option 1 means that at least a fusion reactor will produce energy and be connected to the grid
Options 2 and 3 resolve N/A if option 1 is No
Option 3 is slightly different than 2 as we cannot be certain about the future costs of other energy sources
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