Will the leagues' random closing time be within the first 12 hours?
11
210Ṁ16k
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Season 1 of the Manifold leagues is coming to an end. The countdown timer was reached at 8:00 AM BST (2 hours 45 minutes ago at the time of writing) and you can see how far past it we are at the top of the page if you click on your league. Now we wait for our positions to be frozen as per the rules:

"Once the countdown is reached the leaderboards will freeze at a random time in the following 24h to determine final ranks"

Will this freeze happen in the first 12 hours?

If this freeze occurs in the first half of the 24 hour window (by 8:00 PM BST), this market will resolve to YES

If our totals can still move around after that point and the freeze comes later, this market will resolve to NO

If it is not possible to determine when the freeze happened (or there is some unexpected element of the leagues which renders this market meaningless), this market will resolve to N/A

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I've made a global market for all league season closing times. Does anyone remember the exact time when season 1 closed?

@IsaacKing Oh never mind, they're all midnight pacific aren't they.

predictedYES

What if time selected has already passed but we don't get to know til 24 hours pass? Or maybe never know the exact time?

predictedNO

@ChristopherRandles we know because the numbers have continued to change

predictedYES

@bingeworthy seems ended now

predictedNO

@SimonGrayson This can resolve now

6/(6+12*60) = 0.8%

@bingeworthy riding this for the last few minutes!

(10+2*60)/(10+14*60) = 15.3%

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