When will each league season close?
Basic
13
Ṁ1110
Apr 16
57%
Season 14
81%
Season 15

Each answer resolves to the fraction of time through the 24 hour period at which that league season closed. For example if it closes 12 hours in, it resolves to 50%.

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Ṁ1,000
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opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 90% order

@mods

Season 11: 21:43:18 is 90.48% so 90%

Season 12: 16:32:08 is 68.88% so 69%

Season 13: 11:10:19 is 46.45% so 46%

Season 10 ended at "Mar 1, 2024, 5:30:22 PM". This is 72.94% of the way through the day.

The resolution is unambiguous, creator has been pinged in multiple comments, resolving to 73%.

@IsaacKing — I think you forgot to resolve Season 10.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@IsaacKing this can resolve

@IsaacKing this can resolve

Can resolve season 9 now. Be careful of time zones @IsaacKing

I think this is a misresolution? How can it be 92%. The listed closing time is 19:06 in time zone UTC-8. It's not 100% clear which hour the 24 hour countdown started in, because the on screen timer countdown depended on the user's time zone, but it should be either 19 hours in or 20 hours in. 92% implies 22 hours in, which it was definitely not.

@Eliza Oh. my bad. I forgot I'm currently staying in Eastern Time, so that's what was displayed to me when I checked. Should have resolved to 80%. I will fix that once we have the ability to re-resolve multiple choice answers.

In the mean time, anyone who lost mana, let me know how much and I'll managram you.

@IsaacKing You don't need to send me anything. I figured it must have been due to your time zone shift after I made my comment. I just need to maintain a list somewhere of markets that need to be re-resolved after we get that ability.

If it's uniform, EV of Season 8 is now 66%

lol no way in hell this is drawn from a random uniform distribution. Also, admins confirmed that they have to take manual steps to end leagues.

I think what actually might be happening is that there is a random number generator in the process, but closing still requires manual steps laters which will not happen at nighttime PT.

I'm tempted to bet this to 0 or 100 because James might forget

@Eliza Feel free to do so. :)

@IsaacKing I can't decide which way.

What if a season closes either before or after the specified 24 hour period?

@Eliza I'll resolve to that end of the range.

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