Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2024?
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Dec 20
70%
chance

Apple have announced their new AR device, the Apple Vision Pro:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Vision_Pro

Will Apple's launch kick off a new age of people finally using VR and AR devices? Or will it go away quietly like Google Glass (2013-2015)?

I generally walk around Zones 1 and 2 of London for at least 1-2 hours per day, including areas around central London, South London and South West London. I regularly get different forms of public transport including the Tube.

Will I see at least two different people wearing an Apple Vision Pro in London in public (including on public transport) by the end of 2024?

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What doesn't count?

  • Anyone who is trying to sell or give away Apple products (eg. someone demo-ing the Vision Pro so that people will buy one or enter their competition to win one)

  • People who are part of some kind of art installation or promotion rather than wearing one in their normal lives (eg. if there's a film premier and promotional staff are wearing the Vision Pro or offering people the chance to try one out as part of the promotion)

  • If I see someone wearing one in their own private space such as their living room or their car even if this is visble from a public street

Other resolution notes:

  • When I see the second person wearing a Vision Pro, I will resolve this market to YES. These don't need to be on the same day, and I'll probably provide an update in the market notes once I've seen the first one.

  • If the Vision Pro is rebranded or Apple release similar products such as a Vision Pro 2 or a cut down Vision SE, these will count so long as they are as similar to the orriginal Vision Pro as one iPhone model is to other iPhones.

  • If I leave London or there's some reason why I'm not leaving my home to spend as much time in public, I will attempt to come up with an equivelant resolution such as asking friends to keep an eye out for people wearing a Vision Pro in London.

  • I won't trade in this market myself as I realise you've only got my word on whether I've seen this or not!

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