Will Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis appear together in a televised Republican Primary debate by the end of August?
47
243
870
resolved Aug 31
Resolved
NO

The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html

The two leading candidates for the nomination are Trump and DeSantis. Will they both appear on stage together in this debate (or any other official, televised, GOP sanctioned debate by August)?

If no televised debate goes ahead by the end of August, this market will resolve to NO. If the two candidates appear in separate debates or one-on-one interviews that don't involve sharing a stage, that will not be sufficient to meet the requirements of this market.

Let me know if there are any other edge cases you'd like me to clarify!

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predicted YES

Last night was the main debate in question and Donald Trump did not attend.

No further debate is scheduled in August, but I’ll wait until the end of the month to resolve this to NO just in the very unlikely event that the debate schedule is changed on absurdly short notice!

bought Ṁ50 of NO

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/trump-debate-tucker-carlson.html

Trump plans to go on Tucker Carlson the same night (I think he also wants to mess with Fox News after treating him poorly lately) 😂

predicted YES

@parhizj Seems 50/50 to me

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr He can barely make it to a SCIF room for a federal trial. I think he is just lazy and wants to golf more. 😂

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@parhizj Checked again on 538, still +37 of DeSantis. Increasing NO bet.

predicted YES

@parhizj Trump will keep his cards close to his chest until the last moment.

predicted YES

DeSantis is in, will Donald Trump join?

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Why are you betting no? This is before the end of August. If any two candidates are going to appear, it would be Trump and DeSantis, who are polling significantly higher than the others.

predicted YES

@parhizj He says he is leaning towards not going, but I think he is a bit more likely to go than not. Betting up to 70% was a mistake though I will admit.

2016 had one debate by August; dunno if I wanna bet on those two specific participants...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums

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