Following this week's killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel, the fact that we sell arms to Israel has become a major political talking point in the UK. For more details, see this market on whether we will ban or restrict arms sales to Israel:
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-ban-or-restrict-arms-sa
This is usually seen as a progressive position (the SNP, the Greens, the Lib Dems and figures on the left of Labour have been calling for a ban for some time) but more Conservative voices have joined the fray in the past few days.
The Spectator have been keeping a tally of Tory MPs and Lords who have called for a ban:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-tories-calling-to-end-arms-sales-to-israel/
So far the list is:
David Jones MP
Flick Drummond MP
Lord Swire
Paul Bristow MP
Mark Logan MP, PPS Department for Work and Pensions
Lord Soames
Will this list reach 20 names by 10:00 PM UK time next Sunday (14th April)?
If the British Government or the Prime Minister concede and banning/restricting arms sales becomes the official position meaning that the list is no longer needed, the market will resolve to YES.
Otherwise, this market is based on the Spectator's list rather than any subjective judgement over who should be on the Spectator's list. If they stop updating their list before it gets to 20 people because the issue has fizzled out, that would result in this market resolving to NO.
1,000
3.00@traders Noises from the Tories about stopping arms sales had already gone a bit quiet, but they've gone completely silent since Iran entered the conflict. This market resolves to NO.
You can still predict whether arms sales will be banned or restricted here - /SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-ban-or-restrict-arms-sa
If you're interested in the next political row to bubble up and divide the Conservative Party, it could be the vote on the lifetime smoking ban currently scheduled for tomorrow:
/SimonGrayson/will-a-lifetime-smoking-ban-become
/SimonGrayson/how-many-conservative-mps-will-vote-e37a1e957e4d