Following this week's killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel, some top Conservative MPs have called for the UK to stop arming Israel:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/britain-should-stop-arming-israel-lord-ricketts-former-national-security-adviser

This is significant since the Tories have traditionally been the most pro-Israel and pro-arms party. If they are turning against arms sales, they are likely to be joined by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

Will arms sales to Israel be stopped or restricted in 2024?

The following would count for a YES resolution:

• An announcement by the government that arms sales are being stopped or restricted

• Legislation banning or restricting arms sales to Israel or to a group designed to include Israel. Non-binding Parliamentary votes would not count.

• A court ruling that arms sales must be stopped or restricted. If a ruling goes into effect, that counts even if it is due to be appealed. If it is waiting for appeals to finish before going into effect, that doesn't count yet.