Following this week's killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel, some top Conservative MPs have called for the UK to stop arming Israel:
This is significant since the Tories have traditionally been the most pro-Israel and pro-arms party. If they are turning against arms sales, they are likely to be joined by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Will arms sales to Israel be stopped or restricted in 2024?
The following would count for a YES resolution:
An announcement by the government that arms sales are being stopped or restricted
Legislation banning or restricting arms sales to Israel or to a group designed to include Israel. Non-binding Parliamentary votes would not count.
A court ruling that arms sales must be stopped or restricted. If a ruling goes into effect, that counts even if it is due to be appealed. If it is waiting for appeals to finish before going into effect, that doesn't count yet.
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This fulfils the market definition of "an announcement by the government that arms sales are being stopped or restricted":
So this market resolves to YES.
BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c75nekwkd4yt
Israel Gaza live updates: UK to suspend arms exports to Israel
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf
page 6 - Israel is the UK's third biggest source of arms, whereas in the reverse direction the UK does not even register as a source of Israeli arms, it's off by a factor of about 20x or higher
@nathanwei I doubt the UK will compromise its own national security and its arms imports from Israel for the purpose of appeasing far-left and Islamist protestors. Starmer ran on not being Corbyn.
Yes - I hope the wording of this market is clear and that it is unambiguous that a restriction would count.
The UK supplies very little in the way of arms to Israel - when I created this market I was interested in whether there would be a symbolic, political move to publicly state that we are going to stop or restrict arms sales because of the current situation in Israel. If this happens, the market will resolve to YES.
More Tory MPs and Lords are adding their voice to the calls to ban arms sales to Israel. The Spectator are keeping a list here:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-tories-calling-to-end-arms-sales-to-israel/
Will that list reach 20 names by next Sunday?