Who will replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes?
Dec 31
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Carlos Sainz
Max Verstappen
Fernando Alonso
Alexander Albon
Esteban Ocon

With the shock announcement that Lewis Hamilton will be leaving Mercedes for Ferrari, who will get his seat?


  • This market will resolve to the next driver who is contracted to drive for Mercedes in F1. It will resolve one their contract is confirmed by them and by Mercedes rather than waiting for their first race with the team.

  • In the unlikely event that George Russell leaves the team before Hamilton’s replacement is announced, the market will still resolve to the first permanent driver who is announced. If there is a double announcement of two drivers who will both be debuting in the same race, the market will resolve 50/50

  • If the Mercedes team change their name, the market will still resolve to whoever is announced to drive for the renamed team

  • Please feel free to add any other potential drivers to the market. The market will only resolve to a person’s name, so no answers like “an American driver” or “someone we haven’t heard of yet” will be selected!

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Fernando Alonso is the favourite for this market, but its wide open and he’s still only at 29%!

With stories about Alonso talking to Red bull about a seat, where will he end up?


Rumours are swirling that the fallout from the Christian Horner scandal could lead to Verstappen leaving Red Bull if Horner doesn’t… At which point he seems like the obvious candidate for the empty Mercedes seat!



Related market - /SimonGrayson/f1-will-christian-horner-outlast-ma

Other F1 markets since the season is starting soon - will Hamilton go out on a relative high?



bought Ṁ10 Andrea Kimi Antonelli YES

The Race think that Antonelli is Plan A and Alonso is Plan B...

Either driver would be interesting and exciting.

The contrast between their ages is pretty dramatic. Antonelli was born in August 2006 when Alonso was the reigning World Champion and on his way to wrapping up his second title!

Who will be the next winner in F1?

The Merc seat should be a springboard to potential wins, so unless you think one of the McLarens or a dark horse will win a race in 2024, the answer could depend on this market!

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

“Other” is the market favourite…

I’ve tried to split a few options out from that like Antonelli who is affiliated with Mercedes and driving in F2 this year but who is really unlikely to be ready for a top F1 seat by 2025…

Does anyone investing in Other have any out-there ideas for who it might be?

Here are the current contracts: Things gunna get spicy. I think Hamilton was waiting to see if Andretti Cadillac got accepted for 2025 or not since there were rumors early on he wanted to have ownership stake in a team.

The generated image is pretty nice! Glad it didnt generate the black version, I like the silver better.

bought Ṁ20 of Lando Norris YES

No races run, not in summer break or silly season and Lewis Hamilton out here pulling a Sebastian Vettel/Fernando Alonso 😂 Love it.

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