resolved Oct 10
Will Hurd
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Chris Christie
Nikki Haley
Mike Pence
Vivek Ramaswamy
Tim Scott
Asa Hutchinson
Doug Burgum

Francis Suarez was first out:


That leaves 10 major candidates according to the criterea set out by FiveThirtyEight for inclusion in their poll tracker:

Which of these will be the next to drop out of the race?

Resolution crieterea:

  • I will resolve this market to the relevant candidate when trustworthy news sources such as the BBC and the Guardian are reporting that a candidate has withdrawn from the primaries and suspended their campaign.

  • If there is ambiguity as to which of the candidates has withdrawn first (eg. two candidates both say that they are dropping out of the race after the Iowa primaries and the media are not clear on which of them has technically suspended their campaign first), the market will resolve equally to those candidates who are dropping out at the same time

  • Only candidates listed in this market count, so if someone else rises to the point where they could also be considered major candidate and then drops out they are not included in this market. You are only predicting which of these ten candidates will be the first to drop out.

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Will Hurd is out!

Who'll be next?

Resolves to Will Hurd.

What happens if a candidate dies unexpectedly? They haven’t technically “dropped out”, but they’re certainly not running.

@Gabrielle Good question.

If a candidate drops out for health reasons, that would count. So I suppose that unexpectedly dying is the ultimate health reason!

I'm leaning towards saying that if a candidate dies or is forced out of the race for any comparable reason, the market should resolve to them. Does anyone have any thoughts on that before I add it to the rules?

@SimonGrayson I think it makes sense. After all, a President who dies is no longer President, even if they didn't resign.

Doug Burgum has the funds to stay in longer, he’ll probably wait it out at least through the next debate.