Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election.
After weeks when Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin, the model now shows Harris as a very slight favourite to win the election.
As of the afternoon of Tuesday 6th August, this model gives Harris a 53% chance of winning with Donald Trump on 46% (the missing 1% is due to rounding and the chance of a tied electoral college rather than a suggestion that RFK Jr has a 1% chance).
Will Donald Trump regain the lead in Nate Silver's model? If so, in which month will he first regain the lead?
Resolution notes:
The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.
This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Trump has overtaken Harris and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "he will not overtake her" option.
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@DavidShamespuyz The model is at this page:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
If you are not a subscriber, you can also see that the text at the top of the page is currently describing the fact that Trump has very narrowly passed Harris!
Off the back of some strong polling in Pennsylvania, Trump has overtaken Harris! This resolves to August.
Will he overtake her in the 538 forecast as well? Will he maintain the lead for a week?
538's model has come back online and is showing a 58% chance of a Harris win;
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
The same question as this market, but for 538's forecast is here:
Related market: /Ziddletwix/if-rfk-drops-out-what-odds-will-nat
Particularly if you think RFK dropping out could throw a curveball in the current odds (looks like there will be some meaningful changes to the model)
If you're as excited as me about Nate Silver's election forecast, you're probably also waiting to see what 538's model is going to show...