Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election.

After weeks when Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin, the model now shows Harris as a very slight favourite to win the election.

As of the afternoon of Tuesday 6th August, this model gives Harris a 53% chance of winning with Donald Trump on 46% (the missing 1% is due to rounding and the chance of a tied electoral college rather than a suggestion that RFK Jr has a 1% chance).

Will Donald Trump regain the lead in Nate Silver's model? If so, in which month will he first regain the lead?

Resolution notes:

• The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.

• This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average

• If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Trump has overtaken Harris and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "he will not overtake her" option.