Season 2 of the Manifold leagues is coming to an end. The countdown timer was reached at 8:00 AM BST (a few minutes before the creation of this market) and you can see how far past it we are at the top of the page if you click on your league. Now we wait for our positions to be frozen as per the rules:
"Once the countdown is reached the leaderboards will freeze at a random time in the following 24h to determine final ranks"
When will this freeze take place?
The market resolves based on how long into the 24 hour period the freeze takes place. So it if happens between Midday BST, it resolves to 0-4 hours, if it happens between Midday and. 4:00 PM it resolves to 4-8 hours, etc.
If the freeze happens exactly on the hour and it is not possible to determine whether it happend a single second earlier or later than the cuttoff, the market will resolve to the later time (eg. it happens at exactly four hours, zero minutes and zero seconds after the start, that counts as 4-8 rather than 0-4).
If it is not possible to determine when the freeze happened (or there is some unexpected element of the leagues which renders this market meaningless), this market will resolve to N/A
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ810 | |
| 2 | Ṁ117 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
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@JamesGrugett Ha! Now the gambler's fallacy comes into play and we have to figure out whether getting two so close in a row means that next month's will be close or whether a totally different time is due...
My money is on Season 3 coming to an abrupt close less than five minutes in!
@Stralor Just me. I ran a Math.random() x 1000 x 60 x 60 x 24, and set the updater to not update after that.
What actually happened is that the process runs every 15 minutes, and the last update time was a few minutes before the randomly chosen time. I took the timestamp from the logs of when the updater last ran as the official season end time that you see now.
