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MANIFOLD
Kevin McCarthy "motion to vacate" vote - will at least five Republicans vote against McCarthy?
15
Ṁ310Ṁ6.8k
resolved Oct 3
Resolved
YES

Matt Gaetz has filed a "motion to vacate" against the House speaker Kevin McCarthy:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/02/matt-gaetz-remove-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-government-shutdown

The vote is due to take place "within two legislative days".

Will at least five Republicans vote against McCarthy? This does not include any Republicans abstaining, voting "present" or otherwise expressing their oppositionn to McCarthy without actually voting against him.

Related markets:

/SimonGrayson/mccarthy-vote-will-any-democrats-vo

/SimonGrayson/mccarthy-vote-will-at-least-five-re

/SimonGrayson/kevin-mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-vot

Resolution notes:

  • Any yes/no vote where House members go on the record will qualify if the purpose is to vote on whether to declare the speaker position vacant or to dismiss the attempts to remove McCarthy

  • If the motion to vacate is somehow decided without a yes/no vote where House members go on the record with their votes (eg. McCarthy resigns, the motion is withdrawn, there is a procedure to strike the motion down without an explicit vote, etc) this market will resolve to N/A

  • If there are multiple votes, this market only applies to the first formally counted vote

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@SimonGrayson Can be resolved

Since the market seems pretty certain that there will be at least five Republicans voting against McCarthy, here's a market on whether it hits ten: