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Kevin McCarthy "motion to vacate" vote - will any Democrats vote for McCarthy?
24
Ṁ390Ṁ19k
resolved Oct 3
Resolved
NO

Matt Gaetz has filed a "motion to vacate" against the House speaker Kevin McCarthy:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/02/matt-gaetz-remove-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-government-shutdown

The vote is due to take place "within two legislative days".

Will any Democrats vote to keep McCarthy as speaker? This does not include any Democrats abstaining, voting "present" or otherwise acting to support McCarthy without actually voting to keep him in office.

Related markets:

/SimonGrayson/mccarthy-vote-will-at-least-five-re

/SimonGrayson/kevin-mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-vot

/SimonGrayson/mccarthy-vote-will-any-democrats-vo

Resolution notes:

  • Any yes/no vote where House members go on the record will qualify if the purpose is to vote on whether to declare the speaker position vacant or to dismiss the attempts to remove McCarthy

  • If the motion to vacate is somehow decided without a yes/no vote where House members go on the record with their votes (eg. McCarthy resigns, the motion is withdrawn, there is a procedure to strike the motion down without an explicit vote, etc) this market will resolve to N/A

  • If there are multiple votes, this market only applies to the first formally counted vote

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Somewhat surprisingly since this market was trading above 80%, there was total unanimity among the Democrats who voted in the House. This resolves NO.

It was enough to dislodge McCarthy. What happens next? Markets on the next steps below!

GG everyone. The lone wolf dies. The pack survives.

suppose there's multiple votes, how does this resolve?

@SemioticRivalry This is based on the first vote. I'll add that to the description!

Interesting to see this go from 80% to 20% in a few hours...

Is that off the back of statements from House Democrats? Or just people with very different opinions betting on this market?