London Mayoral Election - What will Sadiq Khan's winning margin be?
31
251
720
resolved May 5
100%98.9%
10% to 15%
0.0%
He will not win
0.0%
Under 5%
0.8%
5% to 10%
0.2%
15% to 20%
0.0%
20% to 25%
0.0%
25% to 30%
0.0%
More than 30%

The 2024 UK local elections are taking place on 2nd May.

The most high profile election of the day will be the London Mayoral election where Sadiq Khan is hoping to win an unprecedented 3rd term as Mayor of London.

Manifold thinks that Khan will win the vote - /cash/will-sadiq-khan-be-reelected-mayor

But how much will he win by?

Will this be a narrow squeaker or will he win a crushing victory over his various rivals including the slightly crazy Susan Hall?

There is also a binary market on whether he will have the biggest ever winning margin here:

/SimonGrayson/london-mayoral-election-will-sadiq

Important note - the voting system has changed since the last election. Previously, the election was run on the supplementary vote system where voters could register a first and second choice. No candidate ever received an absolute majority of the votes, so the results were always based on the other candidates' votes being redistributed to the top two candidates based on second choice votes.

For 2024, this will be run as a FPTP election where voters only vote for one candidate and whichever candidate gets the most votes will win. For the purposes of this market, I will be comparing the winning candidate's vote share to the candidate who comes second to see if this is a bigger majority than Livingstone's majority after votes had been redistributed in 2000.

If the winning margin is close, I will base this on the exact vote share rather than any rounded numbers.

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@traders

This was something of a rollercoaster, but in the end Khan's winning margin was quite close to what we had predicted!

With a winning margin of 11.1%, this resolves to 10-15%.

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