Irish referendum 2024 - Will voters vote yes to the 39th Amendment (The Family)?
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resolved Mar 10
Resolved
NO

On Friday 8th March, Irish voters are being asked to vote on the proposed 39th and 40th amendments to the Irish constitution.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Irish_constitutional_referendums

These amendments are widely considered to be progressive rather than conservative.

The bills setting up this referendum have been passed by the Dail and Seanad (the equivalent to the lower and upper houses) and the Taoiseach supports them meaning that the referendum is the final step in passing the amendments other than some formalities.

The 39th amendment modifies part of section 41 of the constitution from:

The State recognises the Family as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society, and as a moral institution possessing inalienable and imprescriptible rights, antecedent and superior to all positive law.

The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage, on which the Family is founded, and to protect it against attack.

To:

The State recognises the Family, whether founded on marriage or on other durable relationships, as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society, and as a moral institution possessing inalienable and imprescriptible rights, antecedent and superior to all positive law.

The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage and to protect it against attack.

Once the results of the referendum has been returned, this market will resolve to YES if a simple majority of voters vote yes to the 39th amendment.

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bought Ṁ10,000 NO

Shockingly, they didn't just vote no, they voted no in a landslide.

68% voted no.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Irish_constitutional_referendums

Polls have closed and they’re counting the votes…

It’s not looking good for the predictors betting this up past 90%…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/09/vote-referendum-modernise-ireland-constitution-women-home

Since everyone is predicting that the amendments will pass, I've set up a market with a higher threshold here:

Market for the 40th amendment here:

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