Two weeks ago, Kevin McCarthy was removed as the Speaker of the House. Since then, there has been no Speaker.
Jim Jordan is currently the Republican nominee and Manifold thinks there's a 50% to 60% chance that he will be the next Speaker:
Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives?
The first vote on the House floor is due to take place this afternoon at Midday local time. Manifold predicts a 90%+ chance that this vote will take place today, but less than a 15% chance that it will be decided on the first vote:
When will the first House vote for Speaker take place?
Will the next Speaker of the House be elected on the first ballot?NO
How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan in the first floor vote?
This is a count of Republican House members who vote for another candidate or who vote "present". Members who are physically absent or who abstain will not be included.
This market applies to the first vote where members of the House vote for named candidates. Any other type of vote (a motion to delay, an up/down vote on any candidate, a vote on whether to vote, etc) will be ignored.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 3 | Ṁ507 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ328 |
The late votes from the members who missed their turn the first time around took the votes against Jordan to 20. That's a lot more than we were expecting and the shock winner of this market is 20-29!
How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan on the next ballot?
It's exciting to watch the odds change live during the voting!
At the start of voting, 5-9 and 10-14 were the heavy favourites. At one point they were roughly 90% between the two of them! When the votes against Jordan started pouring in, even the 20-29 and 30+ options started spiking. Now that we're getting towards the end of the alphabet, 15-19 is looking like a clear favourite.
But quite a few Republicans missed their turn the first time through, so they could make a huge difference to the total when they vote at the end!
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What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
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Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?