How long until one of Gemini, Claude, etc... match the capabilities of O1?
Plus
22
Ṁ54992026
2%
Oct 12th 2024
6%
Dec 12th 2024
64%
April 12th 2025
19%
September 12th 2025
5%
April 12th 2026
5%
OpenAI's O1 model represents a new paradigm of LLMs. How long until a competitor catches up?
"Catches up" / "matches capabilities" is defined as matching or exceeding the O1 pass@1 benchmarks on AIME, Codeforces, and GPQA at the time of publication:
74.4-percentile on AIME
89-percentile on Codeforces
78% accuracy on GPQA
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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