How long until one of Gemini, Claude, etc... match the capabilities of O1?
26
1kṀ6685
2026
1.1%
Oct 12th 2024
1.7%
Dec 12th 2024
67%
April 12th 2025
22%
September 12th 2025
4%
April 12th 2026
4%
Other

OpenAI's O1 model represents a new paradigm of LLMs. How long until a competitor catches up?

"Catches up" / "matches capabilities" is defined as matching or exceeding the O1 pass@1 benchmarks on AIME, Codeforces, and GPQA at the time of publication:

  • 74.4-percentile on AIME

  • 89-percentile on Codeforces

  • 78% accuracy on GPQA

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Can you operationalize the etc..?

It's soooooo slow though. And the results in real world day-to-day usage are rarely better than Sonnet 3.5 new, which are nearly instantaneous. (I ask both the same questions, and use them on a nearly daily basis)

Option of Oct 12th2024 should be resolved.

@Adamacki I can’t seem to find a way to partially resolve the market

bought Ṁ50 YES

Apparently o1's AIME score was pass@10000, not pass@1. Criteria should be updates accordingly

@JaundicedBaboon I updated the benchmark to the pass@1 score

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