Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?
23
Ṁ1.1kṀ1.8kDec 31
79%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will base my resolution on the largest version of Gemini 3.0 released, not counting parallel test-time compute scaling (like deep think).
Will resolve if the model comes out before 2026 but Metr doesn’t evaluate it until after.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?
82% chance
Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?
86% chance
Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?
14% chance
Gemini 3 Pro Preview METR 50% time horizon
Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?
90% chance
Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?
81% chance