Gemini 3's execution time-horizon?
19
1.5kṀ1435Dec 31
1,830 steps
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
25%
100-1000
52%
1000-2000
15%
2000-4000
7%
4000-10000
On the task described in https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09677, what will be the length of tasks that Gemini 3 will be able to complete in one go?
I'm an author, and I will run the same setup above^ to resolve this.
Currently:
GPT-5 Thinking is 1024
Claude 4 Sonnet is 432
Grok-4 is 384
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Gemini 3's 50% time horizon, per METR
On what DAY will Gemini 3 be released?
Gemini 3.0 released in November 2025?
99% chance
Gemini 3.0 released this Wednesday?
1% chance
Gemini 3 (Google) release
Will Gemini 3.0 Pro exceed 80% on SWE-Bench verified?
4% chance
Gemini 3.0 released in December 2025?
1% chance
Gemini 3.0 released before November 30?
99% chance
Gemini 3 exceeds expectations?
47% chance
What day of the week will Gemini 3 be released?