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Gemini 3's execution time-horizon?
22
Ṁ1.5kṀ1.8k
resolved Jan 16
Resolved
N/A
20%
100-1000
58%
1000-2000
15%
2000-4000
6%
4000-10000

On the task described in https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09677, what will be the length of tasks that Gemini 3 will be able to complete in one go?

I'm an author, and I will run the same setup above^ to resolve this.

Currently:
GPT-5 Thinking is 1024
Claude 4 Sonnet is 432
Grok-4 is 384

  • Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is attempting to resolve this market to N/A due to ambiguity in the original question - it did not specify whether Gemini 3 Flash or Gemini 3 Pro would be tested.

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@JaySocrates I am trying to resolve this to N/A

Because we did not specify Gemini 3 Flash vs Pro, which was a dumb mistake at the time. But i get this error:

error: ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE command cannot affect row a second time at Parser.parseErrorMessage (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-protocol/src/parser.ts:368:69) at ...(node:internal/async_hooks:130:17)

@ShashwatGoel i’d be curious what the results were for each if you measured them!

fwiw i think nobody would object to resolving to gemini 3 pro’s score, it’s imo implied that this market was about that one

added some liquidity

@Bayesian thanks!

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