Overtaking refers having a lower rank (not a higher elo!) on https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text a month after model release. If a company releases a model that overtakes Gemini 2.5 pro, all options after release date will resolve YES and options before or on release date resolve NO. I will use the criteria that the link loads to on the lmarena leaderboard and PT for release dates. "Other" refers any model not released by Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, or xAI.
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Gemini 3.0 (or any other Google model) does not count as "Other" and does not impact resolution. Only models from companies other than Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, or xAI count as "Other".
Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on Elo rankings one month after a model's release date, not immediately upon release. The market cannot be resolved until at least one month has passed since the relevant model's release.
1,000People are also trading
I assume Gemini 3.0 does not resolve Other so how would it resolve? It doesn’t count?
@MachiNi it doesn't impact anything
"Other" refers any model not released by Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, or xAI.
Is the question about:
- which company is the first model to overtakes 2.5pro by date X?
Or
- which company overtakes 2.5pro by date X?
e.g. if anthropic and openai overtakes 2.5pro by X and Y months, will only one of them resolve in yes (min(X,Y)), or will the two of them have a question resolved in yes?
@notbayesian the latter. If A over takes 2.5 pro at time X, even if B surpassed at time Y<X, all options for A after X resolve YES