Who will overtake Gemini 2.5 pro when?
2
1.5kṀ5702026
41%
Anthropic by 2025/10
41%
Anthropic by 2025/11
50%
Anthropic by 2025/12
50%
Anthropic by 2026/01
41%
OpenAI by 2025/10
50%
OpenAI by 2025/11
50%
OpenAI by 2025/12
59%
OpenAI by 2026/01
50%
Other by 2026/01
50%
Other by 2026/04
59%
Other by 2026/07
37%
xAI by 2025/10
41%
xAI by 2025/11
50%
xAI by 2025/12
59%
xAI by 2026/01
Overtaking refers having a lower rank (not a higher elo!) on https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text a month after model release. If a company releases a model that overtakes Gemini 2.5 pro, all options after release date will resolve YES and options before or on release date resolve NO. I will use the criteria that the link loads to on the lmarena leaderboard and PT for release dates. "Other" refers any model not released by Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, or xAI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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