US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2023 peak in 2024?
Basic
72
27k
Dec 31
99.2%
Election Results
88%
Cricket
86%
Effective Accelerationism
86%
Polymarket
83%
Artemis
78%
Large Language Model
71%
Pickleball
67%
Manifold Markets
62%
Elon Musk
59%
China
57%
Hurricane
56%
Artificial General Intelligence
50%
Nintendo
47%
Robert F. Kennedy
46%
Lebanon
43%
Virtual Reality
41%
Transformer
40%
Government Shutdown
34%
Fyre Festival
32%
Twitter

Options resolve as 'YES' if any of their completed 2024 data points surpasses their 2023 peak.


Note: Any option that has already surpassed its 2023 peak in 2024 before being proposed will be N/A'd.

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bought Ṁ30 Manifold Markets NO

1) Reinforcement learning (Feb 25-Mar 2), 2) trying with this again: diversity, equity, and inclusion (Feb 4-10), 3) Fusion power (Apr 21-27), 4) Llama (Apr 21-27), 5) Climate change (Apr 21-27)

We'll see how many are just plain different this time @Simon74fe 🤷‍♂️

@HenriThunberg Thanks! I could resolve all but DEI. Let's try DEI again next time 🙂

@HenriThunberg What's up with climate change btw? I feel like I'm out of the loop here

@Simon74fe I honestly have no idea. Seems out of proportion enough to be a bug rather than actual events?

April seems noted for warmest April ever, but that happens all the time doesn't it?

bought Ṁ30 Virtual Reality NO

@HenriThunberg Just checked DEI again, finally I could resolve it YES

bought Ṁ50 Effective Accelerati... YES

1) Nvidia, 2) Path of Totality, 3) Leap year, 4) Biological weapons, 5) Effective Accelerationism, can all resolve to YES I think :))
@Simon74fe

@HenriThunberg Thanks!! Resolved the first three, but I can't yet see the peak for biological weapons and effective accelerationism on my side

@Simon74fe Hmmkay, I thought I had the exact same settings as you?
Biological weapons:

Effective Accelerationism

@HenriThunberg

Hmm, I also can't see a difference in the settings

bought Ṁ100 Answer #565a7d8c8024 YES

1) Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion , 2) Taylor Swift, and 3) Neuralink can all resolve to YES I think.
@Simon74fe

@HenriThunberg Thanks! On my side "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" only reached the same peak as in 2023, didn't surpass it yet.
I resolved the other two.

@Simon74fe thank you!

Hmm, are we seeing the same thing? To me, the peak looks clearly caused by Jan 5th 2024 mainly. If you need the full week view to be exclusively in 2024 (as is not the case for Dec 31 2023 -Jan 6 2024), then I think that should be clarified somewhere :)

@HenriThunberg That's what I'm seeing

sold Ṁ544 Answer #565a7d8c8024 YES

@Simon74fe Cool, the difference was "search term" vs "topic". Good to know!

@jBosc Earl Grey was N/A'd because this would have been betting on the past. Earl Grey tea was added on February 7th; however it had already surpassed its 2023 peak in January 2024

@Simon74fe ah makes sense

Can you specify how you will resolve these bets? Do you have a link?

@Simon74fe Could you please give a little more detail?

@Marq
1.) enter keyword
2.) custom time range: 01.01.2023 - TODAY
3.) check for peak

I already see 10,000 reasons why this is wrong but there are no backsies on Manifold. Goodbye 25 mana.

ETA backsies. NOT backside. DYAC

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