US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2023 peak in 2024?
68
840
5.1K
Dec 31
99.2%
Election Results
98%
Donald Trump
96%
Euro Cup
86%
Polymarket
84%
Manifold Markets
83%
Artemis
81%
Llama
81%
Effective Accelerationism
81%
Virtual Reality
80%
Vladimir Putin
79%
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
73%
Large Language Model
71%
Reinforcement Learning
70%
Elon Musk
70%
Fusion power
59%
China
54%
Artificial General Intelligence
53%
Cricket
52%
Hurricane
48%
Nintendo

Options resolve as 'YES' if any of their completed 2024 data points surpasses their 2023 peak.


Note: Any option that has already surpassed its 2023 peak in 2024 before being proposed will be N/A'd.

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bought Ṁ50 Effective Accelerati... YES

1) Nvidia, 2) Path of Totality, 3) Leap year, 4) Biological weapons, 5) Effective Accelerationism, can all resolve to YES I think :))
@Simon74fe

@HenriThunberg Thanks!! Resolved the first three, but I can't yet see the peak for biological weapons and effective accelerationism on my side

@Simon74fe Hmmkay, I thought I had the exact same settings as you?
Biological weapons:

Effective Accelerationism

@HenriThunberg

Hmm, I also can't see a difference in the settings

bought Ṁ100 Diversity, Equity, a... YES

1) Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion , 2) Taylor Swift, and 3) Neuralink can all resolve to YES I think.
@Simon74fe

@HenriThunberg Thanks! On my side "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" only reached the same peak as in 2023, didn't surpass it yet.
I resolved the other two.

@Simon74fe thank you!

Hmm, are we seeing the same thing? To me, the peak looks clearly caused by Jan 5th 2024 mainly. If you need the full week view to be exclusively in 2024 (as is not the case for Dec 31 2023 -Jan 6 2024), then I think that should be clarified somewhere :)

@HenriThunberg That's what I'm seeing

sold Ṁ544 Diversity, Equity, a... YES

@Simon74fe Cool, the difference was "search term" vs "topic". Good to know!

@jBosc Earl Grey was N/A'd because this would have been betting on the past. Earl Grey tea was added on February 7th; however it had already surpassed its 2023 peak in January 2024

@Simon74fe ah makes sense

Can you specify how you will resolve these bets? Do you have a link?

@Simon74fe Could you please give a little more detail?

@Marq
1.) enter keyword
2.) custom time range: 01.01.2023 - TODAY
3.) check for peak

make fetch happen

I already see 10,000 reasons why this is wrong but there are no backsies on Manifold. Goodbye 25 mana.

ETA backsies. NOT backside. DYAC

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